How to read probabilities and slippage
By YesNo.fans editorial team · Updated
The displayed price is where the market is now. Your trade moves it, so the average price you pay is usually a little worse than the headline number.
Price as probability
A YES price of 0.62 USDT is read as a market-implied chance of about 62%, and the NO price is the complement. This is a collective estimate, not a forecast with a guarantee.
Why the price you get differs
Every trade moves the market. Buying YES raises the YES price as your order is filled, so the average price of your shares sits between the price before and the price after the trade. This difference is often called slippage or price impact.
What drives slippage
The two main drivers are trade size and market liquidity. A larger trade, or a market with less liquidity, moves the price further.
- Split a large trade into smaller ones if the quote moves a lot.
- Prefer markets with more activity for larger amounts.
- Re-check the quote if you wait before confirming; the market may have moved.
Reading the quote
Before confirming, compare three numbers: the displayed price, the average price in the quote, and the total you will spend including fees. A wide gap between the first two means your trade is moving the market.
Safety limits
The platform may reduce or block a trade that would move the price too far or create excessive risk. A reduced or blocked quote is a limit working as intended, not an error to work around.