PREDICTION MARKET · POLITICS · USDT
Will the Democratic Party win control of the US Senate in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections?
Republicans hold the Senate 53-47 and Democrats need a net gain of four seats, with the Cook Political Report listing six toss-ups, five of them Republican-held. In mid-September 2026 forecasters and prediction markets had the race close to even, Silver Bulletin at roughly 59% for Democratic control. This market resolves YES if Democrats and the independents who caucus with them hold at least 51 seats. A 50-50 split does not qualify.
Resolution rules · English binding text
This market resolves YES if the Democratic caucus — Democratic senators plus independents who have publicly stated they will caucus with the Democrats — holds at least 51 of the 100 seats in the United States Senate as constituted for the Congress seated in January 2027, based on the results of the November 3, 2026 elections and any runoffs or special elections decided at or before December 15, 2026, 23:59 (UTC-8) — equivalent to December 16, 2026, 07:59 UTC, as confirmed by Associated Press race calls and official state certifications. Resolves NO if the Democratic caucus holds 50 seats or fewer, including an exact 50-50 split. Party switches, resignations, deaths or appointments occurring after the deadline do not change the outcome. If races remain uncalled at the deadline and control cannot be determined from the calls made, the market resolves NO. Resolution sources: apnews.com / senate.gov / reuters.com
- YES probability
- 50%
- NO probability
- 50%
- Market volume
- 0 USDT
- Participants
- 0
- Closes
- 2026-12-16
- Status
- approved
