Will the US Federal Reserve raise the federal funds target range at its July 2026 meeting?

Resolution rules · English binding text

This market resolves YES if the FOMC statement sets the upper bound of the federal funds target range above 3.75% (a rate increase), as of July 29, 2026, 11:00 (UTC-8) — equivalent to July 29, 2026, 19:00 UTC, as confirmed by the official Federal Reserve FOMC statement (released 14:00 ET on July 29). Resolves NO if the range is held or cut. An inter-meeting hike before the deadline also resolves YES. If the meeting is postponed past the deadline, the market resolves NO; only the first official statement is binding. A value exactly on the threshold resolves YES (higher bracket). Resolution sources: federalreserve.gov / reuters.com / apnews.com