What are prediction markets?
By YesNo.fans editorial team · Updated
Prediction markets turn questions about future outcomes into tradable prices. On YesNo.fans, every public market is a binary YES/NO question with written rules and a close date.
The core idea
A prediction market asks a question with a verifiable outcome. Traders buy the side they think is mispriced. The market price becomes a live signal of what participants currently believe.
- YES means the event resolves true under the written rules.
- NO means the event resolves false under the written rules.
- Prices can change quickly when new information arrives.
What makes a good market question
A tradable question has one measurable outcome, a deadline, and a named source that decides the result. "Will Bitcoin close above a stated price on a stated date according to a named exchange?" can be settled. "Will crypto have a good year?" cannot.
How this differs from guessing a number
You are trading a price that already reflects what other participants believe, so you only have an edge when your estimate differs from the market and turns out to be better.
Why rules matter
The market is only as clear as its resolution criteria. Good markets define the source, deadline, timezone, and edge cases before trading becomes active.
Risk and responsibility
Prediction markets are not guaranteed income. If your side loses, the position can settle to zero. Treat market prices as information, not advice, and only trade amounts you can afford to lose.