PREDICTION MARKET · ECONOMY · USDT
Will the Federal Reserve raise its target rate at the October 28, 2026 FOMC meeting?
The FOMC lifted the federal funds target range to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16, 2026 in a 12-0 vote and publicly committed to fighting inflation, with headline CPI stuck at 3.4% year over year in August. This market resolves YES if the statement released at the end of the October 27–28 meeting sets a target range with an upper bound above 4.00%. A hold or a cut does not qualify.
Resolution rules · English binding text
This market resolves YES if the FOMC statement released at the conclusion of the October 27–28, 2026 meeting announces a target range for the federal funds rate whose upper bound is higher than the 4.00% upper bound in force after the September 16, 2026 decision, as of October 28, 2026, 10:00 (UTC-8) — equivalent to October 28, 2026, 18:00 UTC, as confirmed by the Federal Reserve's official policy statement. Resolves NO if the range is left unchanged or lowered. Only the target range announced in that meeting's official statement counts; intermeeting moves, changes to the discount rate, interest on reserve balances, the standing repo facility or balance-sheet policy, and the dot plot or any official's remarks, do not qualify. If the meeting is postponed beyond the deadline or no statement is published by then, the market resolves NO. Resolution sources: federalreserve.gov / reuters.com / apnews.com
- YES probability
- 50%
- NO probability
- 50%
- Market volume
- 0 USDT
- Participants
- 0
- Closes
- 2026-10-28
- Status
- approved
