PREDICTION MARKET · ECONOMY · USDT
Will US headline CPI inflation for October 2026 come in at 3.5% or above year over year (report due by November 30)?
US headline CPI held at 3.4% year over year in August 2026, its second month at that level, as a 3.9% monthly jump in gasoline prices offset a core rate that eased to 2.4%. The October reading is scheduled for release on November 10, 2026. This market resolves YES if the first published October 2026 headline year-over-year figure is 3.5% or higher. Core CPI does not qualify.
Resolution rules · English binding text
This market resolves YES if the headline all-items Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), 12-month percentage change, not seasonally adjusted, for October 2026 is 3.5% or higher in the first official release by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics published at or before November 30, 2026, 23:59 (UTC-8) — equivalent to December 1, 2026, 07:59 UTC. Resolves NO if the first published figure is below 3.5%. Only the headline all-items CPI-U figure as printed by the BLS is binding; core CPI, seasonally adjusted series, chained CPI, PCE, third-party estimates and later revisions do not change the outcome. If the BLS does not publish the October 2026 CPI report before the deadline (shutdown, delay or discontinuation of the series), the market resolves NO. A value exactly at 3.5% resolves YES (higher bracket). Resolution sources: bls.gov / reuters.com / apnews.com
- YES probability
- 50%
- NO probability
- 50%
- Market volume
- 0 USDT
- Participants
- 0
- Closes
- 2026-12-01
- Status
- approved
