PREDICTION MARKET · ECONOMY · USDT
Will the RBI USD/INR reference rate reach 98.00 or above before December 1, 2026?
The rupee traded near 95.91 per dollar on September 21, 2026, about 8.6% weaker year over year but off the record low of 99.82 set in March 2026, with RBI intervention, softer oil and expected portfolio inflows limiting the downside. This market resolves YES if any daily RBI USD/INR reference rate published inside the window is at or above 98.0000. Interbank and offshore quotes do not qualify.
Resolution rules · English binding text
This market resolves YES if the Reserve Bank of India's official USD/INR reference rate published on any business day inside the market window is at or above 98.0000 rupees per US dollar, as confirmed by the RBI's published reference rate (computed and disseminated by Financial Benchmarks India Pvt Ltd). The market window runs between October 1, 2026, 12:00 (UTC-8) — equivalent to October 1, 2026, 20:00 UTC — and November 30, 2026, 23:59 (UTC-8) — equivalent to December 1, 2026, 07:59 UTC. Resolves NO if no reference rate inside that window reaches the level. Only the official reference rate is binding; interbank spot quotes, non-deliverable forward prices, futures and third-party rates do not count, and later revisions do not change the outcome. If the RBI stops publishing the reference rate during the window, only rates actually published are considered. A value exactly at 98.0000 resolves YES. Resolution sources: rbi.org.in / fbil.org.in / reuters.com
- YES probability
- 50%
- NO probability
- 50%
- Market volume
- 0 USDT
- Participants
- 0
- Closes
- 2026-12-01
- Status
- approved
