Will US headline CPI for September 2026 come in at 3.5% or above year over year?

Resolution rules · English binding text

This market resolves YES if the headline all-items Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), 12-month percentage change, not seasonally adjusted, for September 2026 is 3.5% or higher in the first official release by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, scheduled for October 14, 2026, 08:30 ET — equivalent to October 14, 2026, 04:30 (UTC-8) and October 14, 2026, 12:30 UTC. Trading closes at the scheduled release time. Resolves NO if the first published figure is below 3.5%. Only the headline all-items CPI-U figure as printed by the BLS (rounded to one decimal place) is binding; core CPI, seasonally adjusted series, chained CPI, PCE, third-party estimates and later revisions do not change the outcome. If the BLS release is postponed and not published by October 14, 2026, 23:59 (UTC-8) — equivalent to October 15, 2026, 07:59 UTC, the market resolves NO. A figure of exactly 3.5% resolves YES (higher bracket). Resolution sources: bls.gov / reuters.com / apnews.com