PREDICTION MARKET · CRYPTO · USDT
Will Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) 10% or more UP OR DOWN over 14d on October 1, 2026?
Bitcoin traded near $85,120 on September 21, 2026, an eight-month high after a 5.6% weekly run. The 14d window opens at October 1, 2026, 12:00 (UTC-8) and settles 14d later. This market resolves YES if the BTC/USDT price as of October 15, 2026, 12:00 (UTC-8) — exactly 14d after the baseline — differs from its level as of October 1, 2026, 12:00 (UTC-8) by 10.00% or more in either direction. A smaller move in either direction does not qualify.
Resolution rules · English binding text
For this market the baseline is the Close of the Binance Spot BTC_USDT 1-minute candle ending at October 1, 2026, 12:00 (UTC-8) — equivalent to October 1, 2026, 20:00 UTC — and the settlement price is the Close of the Binance Spot BTC_USDT 1-minute candle ending at October 15, 2026, 12:00 (UTC-8) — equivalent to October 15, 2026, 20:00 UTC — exactly 14d later, both taken from the official Binance Spot BTC_USDT price feed. This market resolves YES if the absolute difference between the settlement price and the baseline is 10.00% or more of the baseline in either direction — that is, |settlement price − baseline| ≥ baseline × 0.10. Resolves NO if the absolute move is smaller than 10.00%. Only those two 1-minute candle Closes are binding; prices at any other moment inside the window, quotes on other venues, index prices, derivatives markets and later data revisions do not change the outcome. If Binance does not publish a valid BTC_USDT 1-minute Close for either reference minute (halt or outage), the platform uses the first valid 1-minute Close published within the following 60 minutes for that reference point; if none is available, the market resolves NO. Forks or ticker renames do not change the reference pair. A move of exactly 10.00% in either direction resolves YES (higher bracket). Resolution sources: binance.com / coingecko.com
- YES probability
- 50%
- NO probability
- 50%
- Market volume
- 0 USDT
- Participants
- 0
- Closes
- 2026-10-15
- Status
- approved